Paper Title
Oil Price Movements, Exchange Rate and Nigerian Manufacturing Sector Growth: A Short Run Analysis

The paper conducts a short run analysis of the implications of oil price movement and exchange rate relationship on the growth the Nigerian manufacturing sector within January 2008 and September 2017. The monthly data are extracted on variables such as oil price, exchange rate, inflation rate, interest (Lending) rate, money supply and the manufacturing sector growth rate. Oil price movement is viewed in terms of both volatility and change. Oil price change is captured using Hamilton index for both oil price sharp drop and jump, While the EGARCH is used to estimate the oil price volatility. The SVAR results indicate that exchange rate and inflation rate are more responsive to sharp drop in oil price than oil price volatility and sharp jump in oil price. The two variables also remain the most influential on the growth of the manufacturing sector. The findings further indicated that the Nigerian manufacturing sector is more affected at the cost side than the output side, this underscores the importance of tackling the inflation pressure in Nigeria from the structuralperspective asagainst the monetary perspective. Keywords - Oil price change, Exchange rate, manufacturing sector growth