Paper Title
A Simple Method to Value Anti-Piracy Technology in the Recorded Entertainment Industries

This paper develops a methodologically sound framework for valuing anti-piracy technologies used in the recorded entertainment industries. The method is consistent with the `nobody knows'' principle because it does not rely upon the calculation of a counterfactual `but for piracy' forecast. The developed method is applied in the context of the motion-picture industry to value digital watermarking technology; sample calculations are provided for theatrical box-office revenue, distributor revenue, and home video revenue. Keywords - Counterfeiting, Piracy, Recorded Entertainment, Motion-Picture Industry, Nobody Knows, Valuation Method