The Analysis and Forecasting on Foreign Direct Investment, Tourism and Economic Growth in Asean Countries
This research analyzes and forecasts the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), tourism and
economic growth (GDP) in Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Philippines, that countries with a high
level of international tourism arrivals (ITA) and FDI in their economies. Based on the VAR model, the quarterly data for the
period 2005-2019 are studied with two complementary methods of granger causality test and impulse response functions.
The causality from GDP to ITA is found in all countries except Singapore and Malaysia. The causality from FDI to ITA is
obtained in all countries except Thailand and Malaysia. The causality from ITA to GDP is got in all countries except
Vietnam and Malaysia. The causality from GDP to FDI is obtained only in Malaysia. The causality from FDI to GDP is
found only in Singapore and the causality from ITA to FDI is not found in the countries of our sample. This research reveals
these countries have positive and negative effects on the interaction of FDI, ITA and GDP in different periods.
Keywords - Foreign Direct Investment, Tourism, Economic Growth, VAR