Paper Title
Analysis and Prediction of Edible Oil Production in India
Abstract
The vegetable oil economy of India ranks fourth globally. India has been a significant player in the global market
for edible oils, accounting for about 7% of production, 12% of consumption, and 20% of imports during the years 2016–17.
Vegetable oil consumption grew at an annualrate of 4.3% over the previous two decades. About 50% of the edible oil is
imported, with India still being the world's top producer. The country's edible oil production must catch up with the growing
demand, resulting in a heavy reliance on imports. This article comprehensively analyzes India's current edible oil supply and
demand scenario, utilizing statistical and machine learning time series forecasting techniques. The autoregressive integrated
moving average (ARIMA) is employed to forecastedible oil production. The model exhibits a root mean squared error of
0.81 for the edible oil forecast. By comparing the forecasted results with projected demand using linear interpolation,
optimal suggestions are provided to improve oilseed productivity in India. The findings underscore the urgency of proactive
measures to bridge the demand-supply gap and reduce import dependence. This paper offers valuable insights for
policymakers and stakeholders in ensuring sustainable domestic production and meeting the growing demand for edible oils.
Keywords - Oilseed, Edible Oil,Import, Demand-Supply, ARIMA