Paper Title :Analysis and Prediction of Edible Oil Production in India

Author :Nishanth K, Navin M, Sarabesh C, S Senthil, Parthiban Palanisamy

Article Citation :Nishanth K ,Navin M ,Sarabesh C ,S Senthil ,Parthiban Palanisamy , (2023 ) " Analysis and Prediction of Edible Oil Production in India " , International Journal of Advances in Science, Engineering and Technology(IJASEAT) , pp. 13-19, Volume-11,Issue-3

Abstract : The vegetable oil economy of India ranks fourth globally. India has been a significant player in the global market for edible oils, accounting for about 7% of production, 12% of consumption, and 20% of imports during the years 2016–17. Vegetable oil consumption grew at an annualrate of 4.3% over the previous two decades. About 50% of the edible oil is imported, with India still being the world's top producer. The country's edible oil production must catch up with the growing demand, resulting in a heavy reliance on imports. This article comprehensively analyzes India's current edible oil supply and demand scenario, utilizing statistical and machine learning time series forecasting techniques. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) is employed to forecastedible oil production. The model exhibits a root mean squared error of 0.81 for the edible oil forecast. By comparing the forecasted results with projected demand using linear interpolation, optimal suggestions are provided to improve oilseed productivity in India. The findings underscore the urgency of proactive measures to bridge the demand-supply gap and reduce import dependence. This paper offers valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in ensuring sustainable domestic production and meeting the growing demand for edible oils. Keywords - Oilseed, Edible Oil,Import, Demand-Supply, ARIMA

Type : Research paper

Published : Volume-11,Issue-3

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