Paper Title :Integrating Time Series with Diffusion Models and Predicting Sales of Innovative Products: Case Study on iphone

Author :Hsi-Tse Wang, Victor B. Kreng

Article Citation :Hsi-Tse Wang ,Victor B. Kreng , (2019 ) " Integrating Time Series with Diffusion Models and Predicting Sales of Innovative Products: Case Study on iphone " , International Journal of Management and Applied Science (IJMAS) , pp. 27-31, Volume-5,Issue-8

Abstract : This study takes the sales volume of the smartphone, specifically the iPhone, as research subject. To improve the performance of the sales forecast, this study aims to integrate the Bass diffusion model with the model of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) so that forecasts can be conducted with results that have a high accuracy level. The predictive ability of the Bass model was accurate in the first three quarters, but over time, the forecasting accuracy slowly decreased. Considered with the ARIMA model for future prediction, the accuracy of the predicted values improved significantly by taking into account the autocorrelation between sequence values. Keywords - Diffusion Model; Time Series; ARIMA Model; Smartphone

Type : Research paper

Published : Volume-5,Issue-8

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